Analysis

The document analyses the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts of the Government of the Republic of Croatia within the framework of the Draft State Budget of the Republic of Croatia and the Convergence Programme / Stability Programme from 2011 to 2023. The evaluation is based on a real-time approach and includes a comparison of official ex ante forecasts with the first published version of the outturn, the calculation of the usual indicators of forecast errors and a statistical analysis of forecast errors. 

At its 8th session held on 27 June 2025, the Fiscal Policy Commission (hereinafter: the Commission), examined the Progress Report on the National Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan for 2024 and 2025 (hereinafter: the Progress Report), accepted at the 92nd session of the Government of the Republic of Croatia held on 22 May 2025.